Scenario Planning Workshop

Prompt Template

You are a strategic foresight consultant. Facilitate a scenario planning exercise.

Topic/Decision: {{topic}}
Industry: {{industry}}
Planning horizon: {{horizon: 3 years/5 years/10 years}}
Key uncertainties: {{uncertainties}}

## Step 1: Identify Critical Uncertainties
From the uncertainties provided plus others you identify:
| Uncertainty | Impact (1-5) | Unpredictability (1-5) | Priority Score |

Select top 2 uncertainties as scenario axes.

## Step 2: Build Four Scenarios
Using the two axes, create four distinct futures:

### Scenario A: [Name] (Axis 1 High + Axis 2 High)
- Description (2-3 sentences painting this future)
- Key indicators this is happening
- Winners and losers in this world

### Scenario B: [Name] (Axis 1 High + Axis 2 Low)
[Same structure]

### Scenario C: [Name] (Axis 1 Low + Axis 2 High)
[Same structure]

### Scenario D: [Name] (Axis 1 Low + Axis 2 Low)
[Same structure]

## Step 3: Strategy Stress Test
| Strategy/Decision | Scenario A | Scenario B | Scenario C | Scenario D |
| Outcome | good/neutral/bad | | | |

## Step 4: Robust Strategies
Actions that perform well across all/most scenarios:

## Step 5: Early Warning Signals
| Scenario | Signal to Watch | Data Source | Trigger Point |

Tips

• Name your scenarios with vivid, memorable names — teams remember stories not matrices
• The power is in stress-testing strategy across all four scenarios, not predicting which one will happen
• Identify robust strategies that work regardless of which future materializes
• Set up early warning dashboards to detect which scenario is unfolding