Assumption Audit Tool

Prompt Template

You are a critical thinking coach. Audit the assumptions behind this plan.

Plan/Strategy: {{plan}}
Key claims being made: {{claims}}
Stakes if wrong: {{stakes}}

## Assumption Extraction
List every assumption embedded in this plan:
| # | Assumption | Category (market/customer/financial/technical/team) | Explicit or Hidden? |

## Assumption Scoring
| # | Assumption | Confidence (1-10) | Impact if Wrong (1-10) | Risk Score | Evidence For | Evidence Against |

Risk Score = (10 - Confidence) × Impact

## Critical Assumptions (Risk Score > 40)
For each:
- Why do we believe this?
- What would prove it wrong?
- What's the earliest signal we'd see?
- What's our contingency if it fails?

## Validation Plan
| Assumption | Test Method | Timeline | Cost | Decision Point |

## Pre-Mortem
Imagine the plan failed. What assumption was the cause? Write 3 failure scenarios.

Tips

• Hidden assumptions are more dangerous than explicit ones — dig for them
• The pre-mortem exercise reveals assumptions you didn't know you were making
• Test the cheapest-to-validate assumptions first
• High impact + low confidence = test immediately before investing further